{"id":9662,"date":"2025-12-09T11:04:21","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:04:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/?p=9662"},"modified":"2025-12-09T11:06:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T11:06:04","slug":"development-of-an-adaptive-spatial-hierarchical-bayesian-seir-model-for-hiv-and-aids-transmission-dynamics-in-kenya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/development-of-an-adaptive-spatial-hierarchical-bayesian-seir-model-for-hiv-and-aids-transmission-dynamics-in-kenya\/","title":{"rendered":"Development of an Adaptive Spatial Hierarchical Bayesian SEIR Model for HIV and AIDS Transmission Dynamics in Kenya"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9662\" class=\"elementor elementor-9662\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-200fa18b elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-items-stretch elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"200fa18b\" data-element_type=\"section\" id=\"ourgoal\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-42a09eba\" data-id=\"42a09eba\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c2ed8a1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-title elementor-page-title elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"c2ed8a1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-title.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Development of an Adaptive Spatial Hierarchical Bayesian SEIR Model for HIV and AIDS Transmission Dynamics in Kenya<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-281679d7 elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-items-middle\" data-id=\"281679d7\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-30aed52f\" data-id=\"30aed52f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-1dee3ac5 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1dee3ac5\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-1d4c91e7 elementor-invisible\" data-id=\"1d4c91e7\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeIn&quot;,&quot;animation_mobile&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3d092d26 elementor-widget__width-auto elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3d092d26\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">2025<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-4c56786a elementor-invisible\" data-id=\"4c56786a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeIn&quot;,&quot;animation_mobile&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-17283d55 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"17283d55\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Authors<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c634f21 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5c634f21\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeIn&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Mulati Omukoba Nyukuri<\/p><p>John Sirengo<\/p><p>Lucy Chikamai<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-6288500 elementor-invisible\" data-id=\"6288500\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeIn&quot;,&quot;animation_mobile&quot;:&quot;none&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7323e2b1 elementor-tablet-align-left elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"7323e2b1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInLeft&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm elementor-animation-shrink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irejournals.com\/paper-details\/1709800\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">VIEW ON PUBLISHER SITE<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4f35cb0b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4f35cb0b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Abstract<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-215cc252 elementor-invisible elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"215cc252\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_animation&quot;:&quot;fadeIn&quot;}\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>HIV and AIDS remain a significant public health challenge in Kenya, with 1.3 million people living with HIV and substantial geographic heterogeneity in transmission patterns. Traditional compartmental models inadequately capture spatial-temporal dynamics and adaptive connectivity patterns crucial for effective intervention planning. This study develops an adaptive spatial hierarchical Bayesian SEIR model that integrates transmission patterns, geographic distribution, and robust parameter estimation for HIV and AIDS dynamics in Kenya. The enhanced SEIR framework incorporates five compartments (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, AIDS, and Treatment) with time-varying spatial weights capturing inter-county connectivity. A three-level hierarchical Bayesian structure provides uncertainty quantification through observation, process, and parameter levels. The spatial component employs Mat\u00e9rn correlation with adaptive weights evolving according to distance-decay functions and temporal covariates. Mathematical analysis establishes existence, uniqueness, positivity, and stability properties. The basic reproduction number is derived using next-generation matrix methods, with disease-free equilibrium stability proven for R? &lt; 1. Model validation demonstrates superior performance with geometric ergodicity confirmed for MCMC chains. The framework addresses critical gaps in current HIV modeling by providing dynamic spatial connectivity, multi-level uncertainty quantification, and theoretical rigor. Results indicate the model&#8217;s potential to improve intervention targeting, optimize resource allocation, and enhance HIV prevention strategies in resource-limited settings.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025 Authors Mulati Omukoba Nyukuri John Sirengo Lucy Chikamai VIEW ON PUBLISHER SITE Abstract HIV and AIDS remain a significant public health challenge in Kenya, with 1.3 million people living with HIV and substantial geographic heterogeneity in transmission patterns. Traditional compartmental models inadequately capture spatial-temporal dynamics and adaptive connectivity patterns crucial for effective intervention planning. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_header_footer","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publications"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Development of an Adaptive Spatial Hierarchical Bayesian SEIR Model for HIV and AIDS Transmission Dynamics in Kenya - School of Graduate Studies<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/development-of-an-adaptive-spatial-hierarchical-bayesian-seir-model-for-hiv-and-aids-transmission-dynamics-in-kenya\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Development of an Adaptive Spatial Hierarchical Bayesian SEIR Model for HIV and AIDS Transmission Dynamics in Kenya - School of Graduate Studies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2025 Authors Mulati Omukoba Nyukuri John Sirengo Lucy Chikamai VIEW ON PUBLISHER SITE Abstract HIV and AIDS remain a significant public health challenge in Kenya, with 1.3 million people living with HIV and substantial geographic heterogeneity in transmission patterns. 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