{"id":7336,"date":"2025-11-21T06:22:39","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T06:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/?p=7336"},"modified":"2025-11-21T06:24:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-21T06:24:00","slug":"bayesian-hierarchical-modeling-for-predicting-treatment-outcomes-in-breast-cancer-patients","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/bayesian-hierarchical-modeling-for-predicting-treatment-outcomes-in-breast-cancer-patients\/","title":{"rendered":"Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Predicting Treatment Outcomes in Breast Cancer Patients"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"7336\" class=\"elementor elementor-7336\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-70e3b938 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"70e3b938\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-231ccb0e\" data-id=\"231ccb0e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-6f71d6b8 elementor-section-content-bottom elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"6f71d6b8\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-7eda72e8\" data-id=\"7eda72e8\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5dafb1a2\" data-id=\"5dafb1a2\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-27718534 elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-items-stretch elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"27718534\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-35ac948f\" data-id=\"35ac948f\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-4dcccd99 elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-content-middle elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"4dcccd99\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-7f501adb\" data-id=\"7f501adb\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4452425b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4452425b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Student\u2019s Name: <br>\nNelson Muhati Lwoyelo<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-f9f4fdd\" data-id=\"f9f4fdd\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7b5c7357 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"7b5c7357\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Supervisors:<br>\n1. Prof. Richard Simwa<br>\n2. Dr. Vincent Marani\n\n<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-4c91aa56\" data-id=\"4c91aa56\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76ceffe1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"76ceffe1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3c5fca3a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3c5fca3a\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-464bad32\" data-id=\"464bad32\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-195ca2a4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"195ca2a4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-58dc8491\" data-id=\"58dc8491\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-661dd27d elementor-section-height-min-height elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"661dd27d\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-19ecc858\" data-id=\"19ecc858\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6326f79c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"6326f79c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">ABSTRACT<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7992d044 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"7992d044\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy worldwide with approximately 2.3 million new cases annually. In Kenya, it disproportionately affects younger women (35-50 years) and represents the leading cancer diagnosis. Current prediction models inadequately quantify uncertainty in tumor responses, leading to suboptimal clinical decision-making due to insufficient integration of clinical variables and failure to account for biological variability and institutional heterogeneity. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to predict pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients. Specific objectives were to develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework incorporating clinical, pathological and treatment variables, compare performance with existing frequentist models, evaluate robustness through sensitivity analyses and obtain probability distributions of treatment outcomes. We conducted retrospective analysis of de-identified electronic health records from 284 patients across 12 Kenyan treatment centers (2018-2022). A Bayesian two-level hierarchical logistic regression model incorporated tumor stage, hormone receptor status, HER<sub>2<\/sub> expression and treatment center random effects. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods with Gibbs sampling estimated posterior distributions using OpenBUGS software. Three independent chains with 20,000 iterations each, 12,000 burn-in periods, and thinning intervals of 15 ensured convergence. Multiple imputation addressed missing data patterns. The study population had median age 52 years with 83.4% presenting Stage II &#8211; III disease and 38.0% achieving pCR. The enhanced Bayesian hierarchical model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.837, Brier score = 0.167) compared to frequentist approaches. Significant prognostic effects were identified for tumor stage (Stage IV vs I: OR = 24.38, 95% CI: 6.60-93.11), hormone receptor positivity (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.15-0.66), and HER<sub>2<\/sub> positivity (OR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.04 &#8211; 5.32). Treatment center heterogeneity accounted for 9.4% of outcome variability after covariate adjustment. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis demonstrated 97.0% overall stability across validation scenarios. Molecular subtype analysis revealed triple-negative tumors showed 62.4% pCR probability while HR+\/HER<sub>2<\/sub>&#8211; tumors showed 18.7% probability. The model enables risk-stratified treatment planning with clinically meaningful probability thresholds, optimized resource allocation through center-specific monitoring, and personalized decision-making in resource-constrained settings. The exceptional robustness supports clinical implementation for improving treatment outcomes through enhanced uncertainty quantification and evidence-based treatment selection.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3d411b07 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3d411b07\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3c2e4760\" data-id=\"3c2e4760\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Student\u2019s Name: Nelson Muhati Lwoyelo Supervisors: 1. Prof. Richard Simwa 2. Dr. Vincent Marani Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics ABSTRACT Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy worldwide with approximately 2.3 million new cases annually. In Kenya, it disproportionately affects younger women (35-50 years) and represents the leading cancer diagnosis. Current prediction models inadequately quantify [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_header_footer","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-theses"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Predicting Treatment Outcomes in Breast Cancer Patients - School of Graduate Studies<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kibu.ac.ke\/sgs\/bayesian-hierarchical-modeling-for-predicting-treatment-outcomes-in-breast-cancer-patients\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Predicting Treatment Outcomes in Breast Cancer Patients - School of Graduate Studies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Student\u2019s Name: Nelson Muhati Lwoyelo Supervisors: 1. Prof. Richard Simwa 2. Dr. Vincent Marani Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics ABSTRACT Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy worldwide with approximately 2.3 million new cases annually. In Kenya, it disproportionately affects younger women (35-50 years) and represents the leading cancer diagnosis. 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Prof. Richard Simwa 2. Dr. Vincent Marani Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics ABSTRACT Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy worldwide with approximately 2.3 million new cases annually. In Kenya, it disproportionately affects younger women (35-50 years) and represents the leading cancer diagnosis. 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