Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Security: A Case Study of Budalangi in Lake Victoria Basin

Climate change poses significant challenges to water resources globally, with Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya experiencing intensified droughts, floods and water quality degradation due to rising temperatures and irregular rainfall patterns. This research developed an integrated SWAT-SEIR model to assess the complex interactions between climate change and hydrological processes. The fourth-order Runge-Kutta method was employed to numerically simulate the system of differential equations governing these processes and their interactions with climate variables. Additionally, the use of the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method ensured numerical stability and consistency. The model was validated using observed data from Kenya Meteorological Department for Budalangi to ensure its applicability and practicality for real-world watershed contexts indicating temporal transferability essential for climate change impact assessment. Simulations provided clear insights into the seasonal vulnerability of the region, highlighting the risks of contamination during rainy seasons and water scarcity during droughts. The findings of this study can provide valuable insights for policymakers, water resource managers and stakeholders involved in water management and climate change adaptation strategies.