Mathematical Model for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Water Availability and Quality: A SWAT-SEIR Framework

Flood-prone regions, such as Budalangi in the Lake Victoria Basin, frequently experience endemic contamination of their water resources due to recurrent flooding events. Consequently, effective water management strategies in such regions must address not only acute contamination during flood events but also the persistent, chronic nature of waterborne contamination driven by climatic variability and infrastructural challenges. The framework successfully demonstrated the capacity to simulate the dynamic behavior of water systems influenced by environmental stressors, making it suitable for comprehensive climate-water interaction assessments. This paper presents an integrated mathematical model that captures the dynamics between climate change and water security and analyze the impact of climate change on water security in Budalangi.