A Predictive Digital Transformation Model of Maturity of ICT Strategy and ICT Technology Alignment for Cloud Computing in Universities

The rapid shift toward cloud computing has redefined the role of ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment in supporting organizational digital transformation. Despite the growing adoption of cloud computing, many Universities struggle to achieve maturity of ICT strategy and technology alignment with the demands of cloud computing. Existing alignment models remain generic, failing to capture the maturity dimensions of ICT strategy and technology alignment within the African higher education context. The purpose of the study was to investigate the maturity of ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment to cloud computing, and develop a predictive model for maturity of ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment, for effective cloud computing digital transformation. Objectives of the study were to: assess the maturity of ICT strategy alignment to cloud computing; analyse the maturity of ICT technology alignment to cloud computing and to develop a cloud computing prediction model based on maturity of ICT Strategy and ICT technology alignment. Grounded in post-positivist philosophy and employing a mixed-methods design, the research combined survey data with documentary review, followed by descriptive analysis, inferential analysis using Spearman’s Rho correlation and predictive modelling using logistic regression and random forest techniques. Random sampling was used to selected two public Universities in Kenya and 124 participants from a sample frame of 155. Results revealed that overall, ICT Strategy maturity alignment to cloud computing contribute to 34% of digital transformation to IaaS, 30% to PaaS and 36% to SaaS while ICT technology maturity alignment contribute to 27% of digital transformation to IaaS, 26% to PaaS and 47% to SaaS. Jointly, ICT strategy and ICT technology maturity alignment to IaaS, PaaS and SaaS contributes to 30%, 28% and 42% respectively. SaaS transformation is driven more by ICT technology maturity alignment while IaaS and PaaS are more influenced by ICT strategy maturity alignment. The overall transformation outcome for the three models is slightly more influenced by ICT technology maturity alignment than ICT strategy. Models were internally validated using accuracy, precision, AUC, Hosmer-Lemeshow test metrics and externally using simulation test case data. The study concludes that maturity of ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment with cloud computing requires both organizational ICT strategic foresight and ICT technological agility. Theoretically, the study advances maturity alignment research by triangulating the Strategic Alignment Maturity Model (SAMM), IT maturity model and cloud maturity model (CMM), into a predictive framework that incorporates contextualized African realities. Practically, the findings offer higher education institutions a structured pathway for aligning ICT strategy and technology maturity to cloud adoption, contributing directly to SDG 4 (quality education) by strengthening digital learning infrastructures and SDG 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure) by enabling innovation and resilient ICT ecosystems. Further research is necessary to explore new variables in other dimensions that influence ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment maturity with cloud computing, such as cybersecurity readiness and the role of AI and machine learning in cloud transformation, and how emerging technologies such as edge computing, and blockchain influence ICT strategy and ICT technology alignment to cloud computing digital transformation.